Real estate market rockets ahead, with record Q3 sales

The Lower Hudson Valley real estate market continues to rocket ahead, with the number of third quarter home sales in Westchester, Rockland, Putnam and Orange counties up 15.2 percent over the same period last year.

In Westchester, the number of sales in July, August and September broke records that go back to 1981.

The Westchester market also showed the fastest marketing time and least price negotiability in the 5.5 years that this metric has been measured, according to a third quarter report by Douglas Elliman.

"I think the big take for me is stable pricing, heavy sales activity and some weakness at the top of the market," said Jonathan Miller, CEO and president of Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants and the author of the Elliman report, which covers sales in Westchester, Putnam and Dutchess counties.

"Across the region, things have been improving for several years, and now we're bumping up against records," said Miller, who covers 18 different markets in the United States, most of which are in the New York City metro area.

A spike in Rockland

In Rockland, third quarter residential sales are up 16 percent over the same period last year, according to a report released Thursday by the Hudson Gateway Association of Realtors, which covers Westchester, Rockland, Putnam and Orange counties. Sales are up 21 percent in Putnam.

Condominium sales seem to be driving some of the uptick in Westchester, with the number of condos sold up 17.4 percent compared to the third quarter of 2014, Miller said.

The median sale price for Westchester single-family homes was $676,500, down less than 1 percent, according to the HGAR report. In Rockland, the median price was $425,000, up $10,000 from last year. The Putnam median was $335,000, up $15,000.

The listing inventory for all property types in Westchester slipped 2.7 percent compared to year-ago levels, according to the Elliman report. Overall, inventory remains low, Miller said.

"We're 4 percent below the 10-year average for inventory," he explained. "It feels low because the sales average is well above the 10-year average."

In fact, current sales activity in Westchester is a whopping 68 percent above the 10-year average, Miller said.

"There is still a shortage of good and new inventory," said Steve Geiger, an agent in the White Plains office of Houlihan Lawrence.

In looking at different regions within the county, Miller said he was particularly struck by the market in the Sound Shore region, which had an increase in both prices and the number of sales.

Tepid luxury market in Westchester

The luxury market in Westchester — defined by the Elliman report as the upper 10 percent of all single-family sales — continues to show a slide that was noticed in the last quarter. The median sale price for this top tier declined 6.5 percent to $2,150,000.

"I think it's a market in transition at the high end," David Turner, an agent in Houlihan Lawrence's Bedford office, said on Thursday, while hosting an open house in Bedford at the home of the late award-winning composer Marvin Hamlisch.

"Above $2 million in my northern Westchester market, there are fewer transactions than last year — in some cases, they are down significantly," said Turner, who handled the sale of philanthropist Brooke Aster's estate in Briarcliff Manor a few years ago. "It's all driven by price; it has to be priced correctly."

He cited the Hamlish property, which came on the market at $7.9 million, as an example. "We had a great deal of interest immediately, but it didn't sell," he said. "We're now at $5.8 million, and I think that's the right price."

Geiger said that "the buyer for the $2 million-plus house is out there," but the inventory in that price point is also up. "So it's taking longer to absorb that inventory."

Strong luxury market in Rockland

The luxury market in Rockland, though small compared to Westchester, has been doing quite well this year, said Richard Ellis, the owner of Ellis Sotheby's International Realty in Nyack. Twelve Rockland homes priced over $1 million sold in the third quarter, compared to seven in same period of 2014. And the luxury home sales are no longer limited to the river communities like Nyack and Piermont, he said, pointing to recent sales in Ramapo, Suffern and New City.

"With our luxury market here, it's small but growing," Ellis said. "We're starting to see international buyers coming into Rockland, looking above $2 million, and some have purchased homes."

What's hot in Westchester

As for what parts of Westchester are hot, Geiger said "the River Towns are crazy. I'm seeing multiple offers everywhere."

"The further up county you go, I still see a softness in the market," he added.

Down county, the market in Pelham has remained strong, said Holly Mellstrom, a broker with McClellan Sotheby's International Realty in Pelham. "We're seeing the end of the spring market, and that market is still active. As long as listings come on the market, they get snapped up."

"In Pelham, we have a disproportionate number of luxury listings still for sale," Mellstrom said. "They're moving at a much lower rate than the ones between $800,000 and $1 million."

And what does Mellstrom see in her crystal ball?

"I think we'll have an extremely active 2016, starting in January," she predicted. "We're already getting buyers out now who want to be in the spring market. They're afraid of getting shut out. I'm gearing up for it."

Q3 MARKET SNAPSHOT

Westchester

• No. of single-family house sales: 2,065, up 6.7%
• Median sale price, single-family house: $676,500, down 0.9%
• Median price, condos: $373,000, down 0.5%
• End of quarter inventory, single-family houses: 3,614, down 0.1%

Rockland

• No. of single-family house sales: 602, up 27%
• Median sale price, single-family house: $425,000, up 2.4%
• Median price, condos: $250,575, up 12.6%
• End of quarter inventory, single-family houses: 1,289, down 9%

Putnam

• No. of single-family house sales: 275, up 18%
• Median sale price, single-family house: $335,000, up 4.7%
• Median price, condos: $265,000, up 16.2%
• End of quarter inventory, single-family houses: 918, down 2.7%

Source: Hudson Gateway Association of Realtors